The argument that happens most at American barbecues this July 4th isn’t about whose potato salad is better. It’s about whether anyone should be showing up at all.
This is the country’s 250th birthday, its semiquincentennial – a milestone that should be the biggest national party in living memory. Instead, a significant slice of the country has decided to sit this one out, for reasons that go considerably deeper than political fatigue.
The July 4 pessimism running through the country right now isn’t a fleeting mood. The numbers, the arguments over who gets to throw the party, and the raw feelings expressed by ordinary Americans all point to a reckoning that won’t dissolve on July 5th.
One in Five Americans Won’t Be Celebrating
A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted June 12-15, 2026, among 1,537 American adults found that two-thirds of the country – 64% – agree that U.S. democracy is in danger of failing. Democrats (85%) are most likely to hold this view, but even half of Republicans share it.
One in five Americans say they won’t celebrate Independence Day this year at all, including a quarter of Democrats and 8% of Republicans. A further 38% of those surveyed don’t believe the United States will still exist as one country 250 years from now, with many respondents saying the anniversary has become wrapped up in partisan politics instead of national unity.
The partisan gap in how people plan to mark the day is hard to miss. The poll found 64% of Republicans said they would display an American flag or flag bunting outside their home this July 4, compared with just 27% of Democrats. Nearly two-thirds of Republicans (65%) said July 4 is “a day where I celebrate the United States of America,” while only 24% of Democrats said the same.
The poll also showed the share of Americans who see the country as a global standout is declining. Just 30% of respondents said they considered America the greatest country in the world, down from 38% in a comparable Reuters/Ipsos survey conducted in November 2017. The share of Democrats with this view fell from 26% to 11%, while the share of Republicans held steady at around six in ten.
Yale University historian Beverly Gage, whose 2026 book This Land Is Your Land traces 250 years of American history through a cross-country road trip, has been thinking hard about this moment. “The very idea of celebrating has become political and partisan,” Gage said. Prior milestone anniversaries also took place during turbulence: in 1876, the country was still coping with the fissures of the Civil War; in 1976, the Vietnam War and Watergate had shaken faith in government. In those years, however, the celebration itself wasn’t the source of the division.
Two Birthday Parties, Zero Unity
Congress began planning for the country’s 250th anniversary back in 2016, when it created America250, a bipartisan commission of private citizens, lawmakers, and cabinet officials tasked with running nonpartisan events. The commission spent nearly a decade preparing. Then Trump returned to office.
On January 29, 2025, he signed an executive order creating Freedom 250, a separate group tasked with taking over the programming in Washington, D.C. Trump upended plans that had been years in the making, directed agencies and federal funding toward his patriotic vision, and drew criticism from those who saw the result as a partisan celebration more about the president than the country.
Freedom 250 is a White House-connected, public-private partnership hosting a “Great American State Fair” on the National Mall, along with a concert series and a UFC match at the White House. America250, established by Congress a decade ago to plan nonpartisan celebrations nationwide, found itself competing with the new group for media coverage, funding, sponsors, and national credibility. Both spent heavily to promote their own brands at the Super Bowl in Santa Clara earlier this year.
The money side of the rivalry attracted serious scrutiny. Congress allocated $150 million for 250th celebrations in the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” but America250 received only $25 million. Federal records show $65 million was sent to the National Park Foundation, which can distribute the funding to Freedom 250.
The concert planned for the Great American State Fair became its own drama. Most of the original performers announced by Freedom 250 said they wouldn’t be playing, with some citing concerns about politicization. Trump then threatened to cancel all performances and said he might hold a Make America Great Again rally instead. Country singer Martina McBride was among those who withdrew. She said on Instagram that she “was assured this was a nonpartisan event that was meant to celebrate ALL 50 states,” adding that what she had been told “is, in fact, not what is happening.”
Inside the Fair, six Freedom Trucks – mobile museums produced by conservative media organization PragerU and Hillsdale College, a private Christian liberal arts college in Michigan – drew criticism from Democratic lawmakers who accused Freedom 250 of presenting a one-sided version of American history. One Freedom Truck featured an AI-generated George Washington who greets visitors with the words “Our rights are a gift from God.” America250 declined any affiliation with the events, citing concerns about political slant.
The States That Said No
At least 10 states – Connecticut, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, North Carolina, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, and Pennsylvania – confirmed they would not officially participate in the Great American State Fair. The decisions exposed political and logistical tensions surrounding what organizers had billed as a unifying national showcase.
Cost drove nearly all of the opt-outs. Most of the states that withdrew are led by Democrats, but all cited financial considerations, saying they’d have to spend at least $100,000 – and in some cases up to half a million dollars – of their own money to participate. Oregon’s governor’s office cited both cost and concerns about the event’s direction, saying the state would not participate “due to both the cost of participating in the Fair and growing concerns that the event in Washington, D.C. is shaping up to be a more partisan affair than originally presented.”
Oregon officials said a $70,000 shipping cost alone was “substantially” higher than anticipated. Massachusetts Governor Maura Healey took a sharper line, calling it “ridiculous” that the Trump administration “wants to charge us” to attend the country’s own birthday party. Democratic-led states including California, Colorado, and New York chose to participate – meaning the walkout didn’t follow a clean partisan line.
This Has Happened Before – But Not Quite Like This
America has marked major anniversaries during periods of political turmoil before. The centennial in 1876 happened while Reconstruction was collapsing and racial violence was intensifying across the South. The bicentennial in 1976 arrived barely two years after Nixon resigned, while the country was still processing the losses of Vietnam. The parties happened anyway.
In 2026, the party itself became the argument. A majority of Americans – including three-quarters of Democrats and half of Republicans – said they thought the events celebrating the country’s 250th anniversary had grown too political. Even people planning to attend agreed, in large numbers, that the occasion had been pulled out of shape.
Dick Creter, whose nonprofit America Celebrates is hosting celebrations in New Hope, Pennsylvania, and neighboring Lambertville, New Jersey, said several people had sought reassurance that the program would be nonpartisan. “I think that to let the celebration of our 250 go by without embracing it, regardless of your political stance, is a mistake,” Creter said. Across the country, many Americans attended local parades, took their kids to fireworks, and found meaning in the day regardless of what was happening on the National Mall.
The Number That Stays With You
Thirty-eight percent of Americans don’t think the country will be one nation in another 250 years – nearly two-fifths of the population, including 26% of Republicans and 40% of Democrats. When that many respondents say they doubt the nation’s survival, they’re not answering a question about policy. They’re describing what it feels like to live here right now.
Beverly Gage put it plainly: “One thing I’m very aware of is how poor people are at judging their own historical moment.” The pessimism of 2026 may look different in 20 years – either because things improved, or because the people who were worried turned out to be correct. History doesn’t settle that question in the moment.
When a national holiday stops feeling like it belongs to everyone and starts feeling like it belongs to one team, the people on the other side stop coming. A person who doesn’t put out a flag this year may simply be uncertain about what the flag means right now, or whether the version of America being celebrated on the National Mall has much to do with the one she actually lives in. Some of this division goes back decades, and some of it is brand new. July 4, 2026, is simply where it landed.
History tends to remember the fireworks – not the people who stayed home and watched them from a window, wondering what came next.
AI Disclaimer: This article was created with the assistance of AI tools and reviewed by a human editor.