Every summer, people leave for vacations, and the homes they leave behind tell a story to anyone paying attention. Packages stacked on the porch. Grass that hasn’t been cut in two weeks. A car that hasn’t moved since the Fourth of July. Most homeowners think of this as a universal risk, summer equals burglary season, no matter where you live. The data says otherwise.
Cities with cold winters experienced the strongest seasonal swings: Minneapolis posted the largest increase, with summer burglaries jumping roughly 47% compared to the rest of the year, while other northern cities including St. Paul, Newark, Buffalo, and Indianapolis also recorded significant summer increases. Cold temperatures and heavy snow compress outdoor activity into a narrow warm-weather window, and when that window opens, vacations, student departures, and increased travel create more opportunities for property crimes.
Where to Start
A new analysis of FBI crime data by MoneyGeek examined burglary reports from 74 of the nation’s largest cities between 2022 and 2024, finding that while burglary rises modestly during the summer nationwide, the pattern varies dramatically depending on where you live. Overall, burglaries were just 5.6% higher during June through August than during the rest of the year, far less alarming than the “burglary season” warnings that fill every June. But that modest average hides some genuinely striking outliers.
Some cities on this list are places where property crime is a known, year-round problem, but where summer cranks it to a different level. Others are cities that most Americans would not immediately identify as high-risk, but where the seasonal swing is severe enough to matter.
1. Minneapolis, Minnesota
Minneapolis posted the largest summer burglary increase of any city in the analysis, with summer burglaries jumping roughly 47% compared to the rest of the year. For a city of Minneapolis’s size, a nearly 50% surge in burglaries concentrated over three months represents a meaningful shift in risk that most residents may not be tracking.
Minneapolis winters are severe enough that outdoor activity drops sharply, reducing the number of people on foot and the general opportunity for property crime. When June arrives, the city’s rhythm shifts completely. Residents leave for cabins and lake houses, students vacate off-campus housing, and longer daylight hours push activity later into the evening.
Residential burglary peaks in summer months when homes are more likely to be empty due to vacations, and daytime burglary, which accounts for about 60% of residential break-ins, is facilitated by longer daylight hours and open windows. For Minneapolis homeowners, summer security habits matter more here than in almost any other large American city. Homes that look unoccupied carry genuinely elevated risk during these months. Timed interior lighting, a neighbor with a key, and paused mail delivery are responses proportionate to a 47% seasonal spike.
2. St. Paul, Minnesota
St. Paul and Minneapolis share a metro area and a shared summer burglary problem. St. Paul is among the northern cities that recorded significant summer burglary increases, and the two cities function as a twin urban core. The same seasonal forces that elevate risk in Minneapolis operate identically across the river.
Large sections of the city are made up of single-family homes on predictable blocks, the kind of neighborhood that looks, from the outside, like a lower-risk target. But predictable daily routines can be exactly what opportunistic burglars are scanning for. Frequent home invasions happen between the hours of 10am and 3pm when homeowners are commonly away from the home. A Monday through Friday work schedule with no car visible in the driveway, during peak summer months, represents the kind of pattern that experienced property crime offenders learn quickly.
In a city where the summer spike is as pronounced as it is in the Twin Cities, the combination of a residential neighborhood and a predictable weekday absence is a real vulnerability. Varying your routine where possible and making sure a neighbor actually knows you’re away closes that window considerably.
3. Buffalo, New York
Buffalo is another northern city that recorded significant summer burglary increases. Buffalo’s winters are among the most severe in the contiguous United States. The city regularly contends with lake-effect snow and extended cold spells that compress outdoor activity into a narrow warm-weather window. When summer arrives, the release is sharp.
Student neighborhoods in Buffalo represent a particular summer vulnerability. Off-campus housing in areas surrounding the University at Buffalo can sit partially or fully vacant for weeks during summer break, with windows left cracked, doors with worn locks, and none of the usual foot traffic that signals occupancy. The properties aren’t empty in a dramatic sense, furniture stays, bikes might be locked outside, but the absence of daily comings and goings is a readable signal.
For Buffalo residents who stay through summer, the seasonal dynamics in their neighbors’ departures elevate their own risk indirectly. Fewer eyes on a block means fewer people noticing something off. The informal neighborhood awareness that helps prevent burglaries through the year gets thinner in summer, not because people are less alert, but because there are simply fewer people there.
4. Indianapolis, Indiana
Indianapolis also recorded a significant summer burglary increase in the analysis, making it one of the colder-climate cities where the seasonal effect is clearly measurable. Indianapolis sits in a climate zone where winters are cold enough to suppress outdoor activity but not as severe as Buffalo or Minneapolis, which might make the summer spike less expected, but it’s real.
The study grouped cities into three broad climate regions, finding that cold-weather cities averaged nearly a 12% summer increase in burglaries, while Sun Belt cities showed only a modest seasonal change of roughly 5%. Indianapolis falls into the cold-weather category, sharing the regional pattern even if its spike is less extreme than Minneapolis.
The Indianapolis summer also brings the city’s convention and event calendar to full volume. Major sporting events, festivals, and other large gatherings create concentrated periods when a significant portion of residents is not home. A neighborhood that would normally have most residents home on a given afternoon might see half the block absent for a weekend event, creating windows that didn’t exist in February.
5. Newark, New Jersey
Newark is among the northern cities with significant summer burglary increases identified in the analysis. It’s a dense urban city with year-round elevated crime rates, which means the summer spike lands on top of an already elevated baseline. The seasonal effect amplifies a situation that already warrants attention.
Newark’s proximity to New York City drives a particular summer dynamic. Residents who can afford to leave the city often do, weekend trips to the Jersey Shore, longer summer vacations, and the general outflow of urban residents to cooler or more comfortable settings. What remains is a city with a higher proportion of vacant apartments and unmonitored properties during the exact months when burglary rates are climbing.
For Newark renters, who represent a large share of the city’s residents, summer burglary risk means paying close attention to the basics: securing all entry points before travel, not advertising departure on social media, and being specific with neighbors about watching the property. An apartment building where three units go dark for two weeks in July is a notably different risk environment than the same building in December.
6. Memphis, Tennessee
Memphis sits in a different category from the northern cities above. It’s not a city with a dramatic seasonal swing driven by climate contrast, but a city where burglary rates among large US cities are consistently near the top of the national list, and where summer adds further pressure to an already serious problem. Sun Belt cities showed only a modest seasonal change of roughly 5%, but when a city’s baseline rate is already near the top, even a modest percentage increase means a meaningful number of additional incidents.
The city’s vacancy patterns during summer are different from northern counterparts. The summer dynamic in Memphis centers on school calendars and heat. Students out of school, families traveling, and high temperatures that drive residents to air-conditioned spaces away from home during certain hours all create the same structural opportunity: homes unoccupied during a period when burglary rates tick upward.
Memphis is also a city where home security deterrents carry real weight. A University of North Carolina at Charlotte study surveying 422 convicted burglars found that 83% checked for an alarm system before attempting a break-in, and 60% said they would move on to another target upon discovering one. In a city running at some of the highest residential burglary rates in the country, visibility of deterrence is one of the most direct levers available to homeowners.
7. Albuquerque, New Mexico
New Mexico had the highest burglary rate in 2023 at 517.9 cases per 100,000 people, more than double the national average. Albuquerque drives a significant portion of that state figure, and summer in the city compounds the baseline problem.
The city’s geography creates a specific summer vulnerability. Albuquerque’s summer monsoon season typically arrives in July and August, but the months leading up to it, June and early July, see some of the most reliable, clear weather in the Southwest. Empty streets during peak afternoon hours, combined with reliable visibility for anyone observing a neighborhood, create conditions where a determined burglar can operate with relatively low detection risk during the weekday midday hours. Most burglaries happen in the summertime between June and August, and frequent home invasions occur between 10am and 3pm when homeowners are commonly away.
Albuquerque has also seen chronic challenges with law enforcement capacity relative to population, which affects the deterrence side of the equation. When response times are longer and clearance rates lower, the perceived risk for potential burglars decreases. That reality points squarely at prevention rather than prosecution as the most reliable individual defense.
8. Cleveland, Ohio
Cleveland carries a baseline property crime rate that rivals cities considerably larger, and it shares the cold-weather seasonal profile of Minneapolis and Buffalo. The summer spike in a city already at the top of the medium-city rankings compounds into a concentrated risk window running from late May through August.
Cleveland’s summer burglary problem intersects with its vacancy dynamics in a specific way. The city has experienced population decline for decades, which means a higher-than-average proportion of vacant or semi-occupied properties in many neighborhoods. Vacant properties don’t just represent targets in themselves, they provide cover and ease of movement for people operating in their vicinity. A block with two vacant houses and several residents away for summer vacation looks very different, from a deterrence standpoint, than a block where most homes are occupied year-round.
The Council on Criminal Justice reports that levels of 11 of 13 offenses were lower in the first six months of 2025 compared to the first half of 2024, with domestic violence the only offense that rose. There were 47% fewer burglaries in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2019. That’s a genuine improvement nationally. But the cities at the top of the burglary table tend to see their high-water marks remain elevated even as national averages fall.
Risk Is Local and So Is the Calendar
The story in this data is not that summer is universally dangerous or that these eight cities are uniquely lawless. The national trend is moving in the right direction, and that progress is real. But the improvements are uneven, and the seasonal pattern holds firm in specific places.
The findings challenge the idea that homeowners across the country should prepare for burglary risk at the same time each year. For residents in northern cities, traditional summer precautions using timers, security cameras, holding mail, and checking alarm systems are well supported by the data. Homeowners along the West Coast, by contrast, may actually benefit more from tightening those habits during the colder months instead.
The cities on this list share one practical lesson: risk is local, and the timing of that risk depends on where you live more than on any national average. Minneapolis in July is not the same as Portland in July. Cleveland in summer is not the same as Cleveland in February. If you live in any of these cities and you’re planning to leave for a week, the most useful thing you can do is think about what your home looks like from the street when you’re gone and whether anyone who knows your street would notice the difference.
Disclaimer: This article was created with AI assistance and edited by a human for accuracy and clarity.